Having worked on strategic planning with over 400 global cities, Professor Greg Clark explains what Australia needs to address with its own population growth.
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Today’s global cities are expanding as deeper epicentres for human activity and endeavours beyond the traditional work hub.
UN figures suggest that almost 10 billion people will live in about 10,000 cities globally by 2100. For Australia, the government's 2023 Inter-generational Report predicts that 40 million people will live here by 2061 or sooner, with the population rising by 15 million over the next 36 years. This is the equivalent of the current populations of Geater Sydney, Metro Melbourne, Brisbane and South-East Queensland, and Metro Perth being re-added in that time span.
This broaches the critical question of how our existing cities will adjust to this population growth, meeting the demand for essential infrastructures and amenities tied to the ideals of sustainable work, life, and play.
One of the world's leading urbanists, Professor Greg Clark, has some answers. Having worked on strategic planning with over 400 global cities, including London, New York, Paris, Sao Paulo, Barcelona, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Shanghai, Clark is an authority in explaining how Australia can tackle its rapid urbanisation curve.
Together with CBRE's New South Wales Director of Government and Industry, Ash Nicholson, the duo addressed everything from Australia’s current housing shortage to the future of work to blueprinting a successful 24-hour economy.
Options for a successful city
Accommodating for population growth is one of the key challenges in Australia amidst an ongoing housing supply crisis. Clark says that if Australia is to add another 15 million people over the next 36 years, there are only four options to consider.
Let sprawl be unbound and allow every city to expand outwards
Build new cities in fresh locations, as was done historically with Canberra
Enable existing cities to densify and become higher within their current city limits
Connect cities and towns better with enhanced transport to build a networked model of distributed densification with more compact cities and towns working together.
These options are not all mutually incompatible as Clark indicates.
"If you look around the world, the model that's being pursued in the cities that are doing really well is a combination of option three and four in my model,” says Clark.
“Think Singapore, Vienna and Nordic cities like Stockholm, Oslo and Helsinki. They're building new infrastructure to enable smaller cities and towns that are close to large cities to develop, optimise and become specialist locations. That infrastructure in turn enables a larger overall housing market, labour market, investment market, and infrastructure platform. And when they do all of that, they usually combine it with densification in the city centre as well.”
These are the models that appear to work in cities that can provide affordable housing on a larger scale with specialist locations for new industries and a high amenity set for its citizens.
“We've come to the point in our century of urbanisation where the existing models that cities have been using have become saturated. What we must do is break out of the existing model by adding new dimensions to the city, often by creating additional locations within the same metropolitan area.”
Revaluating the great Australian dream
Will the great Australian dream of owning a family home with a backyard meet its demise in the future? While it’s harder for home buyers to secure a freestanding home on a block of land nowadays, it’s not impossible, according to Clark.
“Urban populations are elastic and they're growing very fast. Urban land is inelastic and finite. If you have a model that uses the car as the main form of transport and has the main form of living as the quarter acre block with single-family home, the only way you can grow the population with that model is through sprawl.
“The problem with sprawl is that it produces very high commuting times and very low amenity sets. It leaves people very dissatisfied and it's bad for productivity and health as populations grow. It's almost bad in every way.”
Clark believes the solution is to break out of that mould without needing to abandon the appeal of the nice family home in a well-facilitated suburb entirely.
“You have to complement it with other things. You need to densify and improve the amenity set in your towns so that the suburbs surround towns where there's good amenities, great connectivity, reliable public transport with high capability and capacity.
“If you can do that, you achieve what I call a cohabitation of the old model of low density living in suburbs, with medium density living in connected towns. This is in tandem with high density living in city centres, which can provide different kinds of amenities and choice. This combination provides more choice overall.
“I don't think you have the option simply to continue with the Australian model of the owner-occupied single-family home with every journey being by car.”
Defining the future of work
There’s little doubt that the pandemic has permanently changed the way that millions work around the world. It’s why the experience factor has become such an important tool in today’s dynamic work environment.
“It's the experience of being at work, the experience of the office, the experience of the district around the office, and the experience of the journey to the office that we have to work on,” says Clark.
“The net effect of the pandemic on cities was a shift away from them simply trying to service corporates, consumption, and commuters, towards being hubs for habitat, innovation and experience.”
Cities, he suggests, have their long-term value-add tied to their ability to be great places to live, innovate with new value creation, and host enriching experiences.
This means innovations like the ability to curate new creative and productive activities, as well as focusing on the quality of experience offered to people.
"If the experience is not engaging and fulfilling, people won’t want to come into the office. If given the choice, they'll choose not to.”
Creating the 24-hour economy
The notion that cities are no longer just destinations for workers and commuters highlights the topic of 24-hour economies and how to successfully foster them. In New South Wales alone, there is already strong leadership helping to build an economy around the clock.
“Politically, we have a minister with arts, music, nighttime economy, and roads. This shows the focus on connectivity,” says Nicholson.
“We have a dedicated 24-hour economy commissioner with an expanding team and remit. Most importantly, we have a 24-hour economy plan.
“The ongoing misconception around the 24-hour economy is that it's only about entertainment and going out at night, but it's so much more than that.
“It's the key workers that keep our city optimised at night. It's the healthcare workers, the supply chain workers, and of course the cultural and place factors that really make people attracted to live, work, and play in a location.”
This article was originally published on CBRE. Read it here.